Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
