How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.