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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he became the fifth British prime minister to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth prime minister in two years – with three in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: from the moment Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”