🔗 Share this article

Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.